Conflict forecasting as a theory and its accelerated implementation in the functioning and development of macro and micro social systems and businesses today has become a priority in the modern world, which has steered relentlessly along the path of globalization.
The importance of predicting conflicts is related to the tremendous increase in the conflicting contradiction between scientific, technical and social progress, as two global elements of the system of the modern world. Conflict management is managed by Human Resources Managers who are responsible for conflicts between employees in the organization.
Research shows that the achievements of scientific and technical (especially military) potential threaten the stable functioning of the social system. The main reason for this fateful contradiction is the lagging behind in the organization of society and its management. Whether the forecasting will justify its priority, the future will determine the resolution of the formulated contradiction. So far, it has successfully "carried on" its Eurological mission.
There is no doubt that every activity is subject to forecasting. This requires global knowledge of both general and less general patterns of social processes. This is why forecasting inventories and processes scientific knowledge, both for the macro- and micro processes that flow into the social system, represented generally by the sciences. This indicates that forecasting, on the one hand, uses semi-disciplinary methods in processing the necessary knowledge and, on the other, current methods. This does not preclude the projection of establishing its own methods and producing adequate information for its needs.
In a word, the forecast rests firmly on knowledge of the past, present and future state of the system. This will be the support of objective action for the laws in the system that is subject to forecasting. Without knowing the objective development trends, there is no forecasting.
Conflict forecasting is no exception to the requirements outlined. Naturally, as a specific phenomenon of development, conflict bears the nature of the natural whole. That is, it also goes through the main stages: the emergence, deployment (stimulation or retention) and resolution of the conflict. The inaccurate disclosure of this general pattern is at the heart of predicting conflict.
In addition, and in parallel, the existence of an inexhaustible variety of processes shaping the type and form of the course and management of conflict, conflictology offers its own concept apparatus, principles of research and technology for conflict resolution. In this case, it is about discovering the objective causes (sources) of the conflict and predicting it.
The first of these is the set of descriptive - explanatory - prognostic concepts, theories and models that exist in one or another degree in contemporary conflictology.
The second source is the advancements in the field of prognosis for the conflicts-related sciences and, above all, the sociology and social psychology, which can be overlooked by the experts in conflictology as well as by managers from different levels.
The third source is the practical work of managers and specialists of all levels and levels of management who, too often and without specific prognostic tools and methods, are able to accurately and accurately diagnose and predict future conflict interactions in their organizations.
The problem of conflict prediction and emergence is closely linked to the problem of causality (discussed by us in some respects in Chapter Two and in more detail in Section 2.3.), Here we extend and refine this complex problem from another specific angle.
Each manifested or latent conflict, from intrapersonal to interstate, has and implicitly contains, objective and subjective prerequisites for its occurrence, existence and completion, as well as characteristic indicators and symptoms of conflict occurrence (pre-conflict situation). It is these essential aspects that pertain to the problem of conflict prediction that are the subject of study in this Chapter.
Objective prerequisites for the occurrence of the conflict
The objective prerequisites for the occurrence of the conflict are too numerous and of high quality, but they are reduced to five major aggregates in the literature. This classification is not drawn from the global social system, but from structures at more specific levels:
- Resource group of objective prerequisites;
- Information group of objective prerequisites;
- Value group of objective prerequisites;
- Structural group of objective prerequisites;
- A communication or behavioral group of objective prerequisites.
Let's look more closely at each of the five main groups of objective prerequisites for conflict:
The resource group of objective prerequisites for the occurrence of conflicts is perhaps the most common cause of conflict interactions. However, it should not be taken to the extreme that it is believed that only a lack of financial (eg salary) or any other material resources to be distributed can become prerequisites for the unfolding of the conflict in all its dynamics and maturity. The deterministic role of the resource, as a driver of conflict, must be understood in this case in its broad sense - material and spiritual resource. The scarcity of resources, as well as the struggle to control and distribute them, is a major conflict factor that manifests itself everywhere, from interpersonal conflict to interstate conflict;
The Information Group of Objective Prerequisites for Conflict Occurrence is conditioned by information as such, which is constantly emerging, disseminated and exchanged, between different individuals, organizations and structures, through a variety of channels and at various levels, in a formal and informal appearance. The type of information that may generate conflict can be very diverse, including for example incomplete or inaccurate official business information (knowingly or unknowingly disseminated through communication and communication channels), as well as inevitably existing and circulating in any social group or organization. rumors, rumors and the like. The role of information as a source of conflict should not be underestimated, and in our view, its role as a conflict factor will increase steadily as humanity enters the information age; Reference: Occurrence of work conflicts
The value group of objective prerequisites for the occurrence of conflicts are both the principles that the subject accepts or rejects, as well as the differences that inevitably exist between individuals and social groups regarding differences in goals, values, methods, and behaviors, differences in qualifications and level of education. The value group of objective prerequisites is a continuous and eternal source of conflicting interactions, as individuals, and society, with its structures and social elements, possess and carry the most diverse and often opposite values, patterns of behavior and social orientations;
The structural group of objective prerequisites for the occurrence of conflicts is also important, though not the most important, objective conflict factor. This group is primarily concerned with the following specific objective reasons: (a) unclear, ambiguous and inconsistent rights and obligations of entities within the organization; (b) inadequate and inefficient governance structures within the organization; c) the social and professional status of the employees of the organization; d) the problem of ownership of the organization and the attitude and place of the individual towards it;
The communicative or behavioral group of objective prerequisites for the occurrence of conflicts involves the behavior of the subjects, which is inconsistent with the expectations of others and is accompanied by inadequate communication of the situation, time and place.
In each type of conflict, as an objective prerequisite for its occurrence, each of the five main groups, as well as in various combinations of each other, can manifest themselves individually. Reference: Methodologies For Conflict Management
Specific conflict studies show that conflict, as a rule, involves multiple and multifaceted objective causes, yet one of these objective causes is the determinant of conflict interaction.
Objective causes of conflict are an extremely important element in conflict and are also linked to subjective prerequisites (the human factor). This clash is the cause of the occurrence, course and resolution of the conflict in objective reality.